-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (HEADER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_WEEKLY_001 Title : Weekly Olive Oil Intelligence Brief, Week ending Sunday, May 10, 2026 Version : 1.1 Status : Active Classification : Internal, founder and advisory Prepared By : PYB / Daralbeida Reviewed By : (pending) Approved By : (pending) Approval Date : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Date Created : 2026-05-10 Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Weekly cadence, superseded by next issue Next Review Due : 2026-05-17 Annual Review : (pending) Retention : Duration of Year 1 launch program plus seven years Department : MI Style : BPGP Keywords : olive oil, market intelligence, Section 122, MAFTA, EVOO, Morocco, Spain, tariffs, procurement, Year 1 Related Docs : DARX_MI_YEARLY_001, DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001, DARX_MI_RISK_001 Supersedes : DARX_MI_WEEKLY_20260510.txt Superseded By : (none, current version) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLINE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Purpose and Scope 2. Headline 3. What Changed This Week 3.1 Section 122 Struck Down at Trade Court (Early May 2026) 3.2 Spain Price Floor Holding (Week of May 5, 2026) 3.3 Morocco 2025/26 Harvest Officially Exceptional 3.4 US Import Demand Still Contracted 3.5 Mediterranean Weather 2026/27 Setup, Mixed 4. What It Means for Daralbeida 5. Founder Action Items 6. Signal to Noise 6.1 Watch 6.2 Discount for Now 7. Lead References for the Week 8. AI Prompts 9. Revision History 10. Acronyms 11. Glossary DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ 1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE ================================================================================ This brief provides a one-week intelligence summary of the global olive oil market from the Daralbeida operating perspective. It covers production, pricing, trade policy, weather, regulatory action, and industry events material to Daralbeida's Year 1 procurement and Year 2 contracting decisions. It is a tactical document, not a strategic one. For multi-year context, see DARX_MI_YEARLY_001. For country-by-country detail, see DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001. For sourcing risk register, see DARX_MI_RISK_001. The intended cadence is weekly. Each issue carries the date of the week ending in the title field and increments only as cadence breaks; a fresh series begins each calendar year. ================================================================================ 2. HEADLINE ================================================================================ Two stories dominate the week. First, the US Court of International Trade struck down the 10% Section 122 baseline tariff in early May. The court ruled that the proclamation failed to identify a balance-of-payments deficit within the statute's meaning. The tariff remains in effect pending appeal. An appeal to the Supreme Court is now considered near-certain. Second, Spanish origin prices have refused to soften. Pool Red EVOO is locked near EUR 4.60/kg despite a 2025/26 crop that finished close to forecast at approximately 1.27 to 1.37 Mt. About 60% of the season's stock has already been dispatched, putting the market under quiet pressure heading into summer. For Daralbeida, neither development is bad news on its own. Together they reinforce the case for moving on the proof-of-concept shipment in the Q3 window rather than waiting for a "clearer" picture that is unlikely to arrive before the next harvest. ================================================================================ 3. WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK ================================================================================ 3.1 SECTION 122 STRUCK DOWN AT TRADE COURT (EARLY MAY 2026) The Court of International Trade ruled the President exceeded his Section 122 authority. Tariffs continue to be collected pending appeal. Roughly USD 20 to 25 billion in collections are potentially in refund scope. The CBP CAPE refund portal opened April 20, 2026. Implication: If overturned on appeal, Morocco-origin EVOO falls back to the MAFTA zero-duty baseline. If appeal succeeds for the government, Section 122 still expires statutorily on July 24, 2026 regardless. Either path leads to lower landed cost for Daralbeida by Q4 2026 unless the regime is replaced by Section 301 country-specific tariffs. USTR investigations of 16 economies are timed to land at sunset. 3.2 SPAIN PRICE FLOOR HOLDING (WEEK OF MAY 5, 2026) Oleista origin price data and Pool Red show Spanish EVOO origin prices around EUR 4.50 to 5.00/kg. AICA and IOC data through April: about 60% of the season's volume has already moved; stocks are about 24% below year-ago. The "drop to EUR 4.00/kg" thesis circulating in trade press six months ago has not materialised. Italy is at approximately EUR 6.90/kg, down from above 9.00 but stable. Tunisia is at EUR 3.40/kg conventional, undercutting Spain. Origin price snapshot, week of May 5, 2026: Origin Indicative price and notes ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Spain (EVOO origin) EUR 4.50 to 5.00/kg; Pool Red locked near EUR 4.60/kg Italy Approximately EUR 6.90/kg, down from above 9.00, stable Tunisia EUR 3.40/kg conventional, undercutting Spain 3.3 MOROCCO 2025/26 HARVEST OFFICIALLY EXCEPTIONAL Final figures confirm approximately 200,000 tonnes of olive oil for the 2025/26 campaign, versus approximately 90,000 tonnes the prior year, a doubling. Domestic retail has crashed from approximately 120 MAD/L to 50 to 60 MAD/L (approximately EUR 4.50 to 5.50). Farm-gate olives are at approximately 5 MAD/kg, versus 13 to 15 MAD/kg in 2024. The export window is wide open for the first time in two years, and producers are actively seeking US off-take. 3.4 US IMPORT DEMAND STILL CONTRACTED For the first ten months of 2025: US EVOO imports declined 22.2% year-on-year overall. Italy was down 20%. Spain was down 23.2%. Tunisia was down 25.2% in volume terms but its export value rose 61% as it captured share at lower price. This is the demand-destruction signal that Certified Origins and IOC have been flagging since the 2023/24 price spike. US EVOO import change, first ten months of 2025 (year-on-year): Origin Change and notes ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Overall Down 22.2% in volume Italy Down 20% Spain Down 23.2% Tunisia Down 25.2% in volume; export value rose 61% on lower price 3.5 MEDITERRANEAN WEATHER 2026/27 SETUP, MIXED Heavy spring rainfall in Spain has been a problem for harvest completion but a positive for soil moisture going into the next crop year. Andalusia experienced floods, strong winds, and frost in March 2026. Morocco's spring conditions are not yet finalised in the press; the next four to six weeks (flowering window) determine the 2026/27 crop trajectory. ================================================================================ 4. WHAT IT MEANS FOR DARALBEIDA ================================================================================ The supply-side window for premium Moroccan EVOO is the most open it has been since 2022. Domestic prices are at a multi-year low and producers have surplus volume seeking a buyer. The MAFTA tariff advantage versus Spain has been compressed by Section 122, but it is set to either expire or be replaced within the next 90 days, and in either case Morocco-origin product retains a structural advantage over EU- and Tunisia-origin sources. ================================================================================ 5. FOUNDER ACTION ITEMS ================================================================================ 1. Hold the Q3 proof-of-concept shipment timing. Do not chase a "wait and see" posture on tariffs; the asymmetry of outcomes favours moving. 2. Lock FOB Casablanca quotes for September and October pickup before Mediterranean trade re-prices on 2026/27 harvest signals. 3. Confirm with US trade counsel the post-122 routing logic. If Section 122 expires July 24 without replacement, MAFTA's BH preference indicator on the entry summary delivers full zero effective duty. 4. Request CBP CAPE refund-eligibility flag on any entries between late February and the appeal resolution date. ================================================================================ 6. SIGNAL TO NOISE ================================================================================ 6.1 WATCH - USTR Section 301 announcements (timing late June through late July). - Morocco rainfall and flowering reports (next six weeks). - AICA April and May stock release (ongoing). - Andalusia weather (frost is the residual risk). 6.2 DISCOUNT FOR NOW - "EVOO collapsing to EUR 3.00/kg" headlines. Not happening this campaign. Tunisian undercut yes, Spain follow-down no. - US-EU framework agreement chatter. Useful background; not actionable until ratified by all 27 member states. ================================================================================ 7. LEAD REFERENCES FOR THE WEEK ================================================================================ - International Olive Council. Olive Sector Statistics, December 2025 and March 2025 issues. Available at internationaloliveoil.org. - Certified Origins. Olive Oil Market Report, January 2026. - Olive Oil Times. Morocco harvest coverage, September 2025 and February 2026 issues. - Oleista. Origin price tracker, May 5, 2026 update. - USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Morocco's 2026 FTA Tariff Schedule, January 8, 2026. - US Customs and Border Protection. MAFTA reference, accessed at cbp.gov/trade/free-trade-agreements/morocco. - Tariffstool, Foley & Lardner LLP, and Global Trade Alert. Section 122 briefings, February through May 2026. - Italian Food News (italianfood.net). US import contraction analysis, May 4, 2026. ================================================================================ 8. AI PROMPTS ================================================================================ The following copy-paste prompt regenerates next week's issue of this brief in the same BPGP structure. Replace the editable tokens in [SQUARE_BRACKETS] before running. ================================================================================ START OF PROMPT ================================================================================ You are a market intelligence analyst for Daralbeida, an olive oil import and brand venture. Produce the Weekly Olive Oil Intelligence Brief for the week ending [WEEK_ENDING_DATE]. Cover global olive oil production, origin pricing, trade policy and tariffs, Mediterranean weather, regulatory action, and US import demand, all from Daralbeida's Year 1 procurement perspective. Use these inputs: [PASTE_THIS_WEEKS_SOURCE_NOTES_AND_PRICE_DATA]. Preserve every figure, price, percentage, date, company name, and source citation exactly. Output the following numbered sections in order: Purpose and Scope; Headline; What Changed This Week; What It Means for Daralbeida; Founder Action Items; Signal to Noise; Lead References for the Week; AI Prompts; Revision History; Acronyms; Glossary. Keep it tactical, not strategic. Compare current Section 122 status against Federal Register notices and CBP guidance before stating any tariff rate. ================================================================================ END OF PROMPT ================================================================================ ================================================================================ 9. REVISION HISTORY ================================================================================ Ver Date Author Summary of Changes ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1.0 2026-05-10 PYB / Daralbeida Initial issue (BPGP reformat of DARX-INTEL-WEEKLY-001 dated 2026-05-10) 1.1 2026-06-13 PYB / Daralbeida Reformatted to BPGP v3.1 contract; added AI Prompts and Revision History sections; structured origin-price and import-change tables; no content changes ================================================================================ 10. ACRONYMS ================================================================================ AICA Spanish Olive Oil Industry Authority BH Special Program Indicator for the US-Morocco FTA preference CAPE CBP refund portal name (acronym not formally expanded) CBP US Customs and Border Protection CIT Court of International Trade (US) EU European Union EUR Euro (currency) EVOO Extra Virgin Olive Oil FBA Fulfilled by Amazon FOB Free On Board (Incoterm) FTA Free Trade Agreement IOC International Olive Council MAD Moroccan Dirham (currency) MAFTA United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement Mt Million tonnes (metric) Q3 Third quarter of calendar year Q4 Fourth quarter of calendar year US United States USD US Dollar (currency) USDA United States Department of Agriculture USTR Office of the United States Trade Representative YoY Year-on-year ================================================================================ 11. GLOSSARY ================================================================================ Brand-Equity Tier Third price tier in Daralbeida's listing-maturity pricing architecture at USD 32 per 0.5L bottle. Reached when listing has accumulated review base supporting premium position. Demand-Signal Tier Second price tier at USD 28 to 29 per 0.5L bottle, used between Launch and Brand-Equity tiers. Founder The principal of Daralbeida. In all Daralbeida documents referenced by function only, never by personal name. Launch Tier First price tier at USD 26 per 0.5L bottle, used at Amazon FBA listing launch. Pool Red Industry pricing benchmark for Spanish Pool Red Jaen weekly producer prices. Functions as the de facto global olive oil price reference, equivalent in role to the Chicago Board of Trade for agricultural commodities. Section 122 Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974. Authorises temporary import surcharges of up to 15% ad valorem for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits. Invoked February 24, 2026; statutory expiry July 24, 2026. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_WEEKLY_001 Version : 1.1 Status : Active Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Weekly cadence, superseded by next issue (DARX_MI_WEEKLY_002 dated 2026-05-17) Next Review Due : 2026-05-17 Annual Review : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Distribution : Internal, founder and advisory Review Triggers : New Section 122 court ruling or appeal decision; USTR Section 301 announcement; material change in Spain, Italy, Tunisia, or Morocco origin pricing; CBP CAPE refund-portal guidance update. COMPLIANCE : Tariff rate citations and Section 122 status are accurate as of week ending May 10, 2026 only. Status changes materially between May and July 2026; do not reuse this document for landed cost calculations without re-verifying the current Section 122 position against Federal Register notices and CBP guidance. Revision History: See Section 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- END OF DOCUMENT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------